论文标题

评估环境空气质量作为哮喘恶化的危险因素的荟萃分析

Evaluation of a meta-analysis of ambient air quality as a risk factor for asthma exacerbation

论文作者

Kindzierski, Warren B., Young, S. Stanley, Meyer, Terry G., Dunn, John D.

论文摘要

假阳性结果和偏见可能是当今生物医学文献的常见特征,包括危险因素 - 智种疾病研究。进行了一项研究,以评估荟萃分析中使用的基础研究的可靠性,研究了一氧化碳,颗粒物10和2.5微摩尔,微摩尔,二氧化硫,二氧化氮和臭氧是否是哮喘患者的危险因素(住院和急诊室就诊哮喘发作)。在荟萃分析中使用的87个随机选择的基本论文中计数统计检验和模型的数量。构建了每个空气成分的P值图,以评估所有87个基本纸中使用的P值的效应异质性的效果异质性。在17个选定的基本论文中可能的统计测试数量很大,中位数= 15,360(Quartile范围= 1,536至40,960),相比之下,相比之下。每个p值图都显示出一个两个组分的混合物,小于0.001,而其他p值似乎是随机的(p值大于.05)。鉴于在17个选定的基本论文中进行的潜在大量统计检验,不能排除P黑客作为小型P值的解释。我们对荟萃分析的解释是,表明无效关联的随机p值更合理,并且在没有偏见的情况下,荟萃分析不可能复制。我们得出结论,所使用的荟萃分析和基本论文是不可靠的,并且没有提供价值的证据,以告知公共卫生从业者空气质量,这是哮喘加重的危险因素。以下领域对于在资助机构和期刊级别上改善危险因素慢性疾病观察研究至关重要:预注册,资助机构的变化以及期刊编辑(以及审查者)实践,数据共享数据以及可重复性研究的便利化。

False-positive results and bias may be common features of the biomedical literature today, including risk factor-chronic disease research. A study was undertaken to assess the reliability of base studies used in a meta-analysis examining whether carbon monoxide, particulate matter 10 and 2.5 micro molar, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and ozone are risk factors for asthma exacerbation (hospital admission and emergency room visits for asthma attack). The number of statistical tests and models were counted in 17 randomly selected base papers from 87 used in the meta-analysis. P-value plots for each air component were constructed to evaluate the effect heterogeneity of p-values used from all 87 base papers The number of statistical tests possible in the 17 selected base papers was large, median=15,360 (interquartile range=1,536 to 40,960), in comparison to results presented. Each p-value plot showed a two-component mixture with small p-values less than .001 while other p-values appeared random (p-values greater than .05). Given potentially large numbers of statistical tests conducted in the 17 selected base papers, p-hacking cannot be ruled out as explanations for small p-values. Our interpretation of the meta-analysis is that the random p-values indicating null associations are more plausible and that the meta-analysis will not likely replicate in the absence of bias. We conclude the meta-analysis and base papers used are unreliable and do not offer evidence of value to inform public health practitioners about air quality as a risk factor for asthma exacerbation. The following areas are crucial for enabling improvements in risk factor chronic disease observational studies at the funding agency and journal level: preregistration, changes in funding agency and journal editor (and reviewer) practices, open sharing of data and facilitation of reproducibility research.

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