论文标题

自感染模型以来,时间有效且灵活的方法

Efficient and flexible methods for time since infection models

论文作者

Peterson, Joseph D., Adhikari, Ronojoy

论文摘要

流行病模型是对抗传染病的有用工具,因为它们允许决策者测试和比较各种策略,以限制疾病传播的同时减轻对经济的附带损害。更忠于疾病传播的微观细节的流行模型可以提供更可靠的预测,进而可以导致更可靠的控制策略。例如,许多流行病模型通过一系列人工“阶段”或“隔室”描述了疾病的进展(例如暴露,激活,感染性等),但是一种流行病模型,该模型自感染(TSI)以来会明确跟踪时间(TSI)可以提供更精确的描述。目前,具有“隔室”的流行模型比TSI模型更常见,这主要是由于较高的计算成本和通常与TSI模型相关的复杂性。但是,在这里,我们表明,使用正确的离散方案,TSI模型要比感染类别的三个或四个“阶段”的比较模型难以解决。我们还提供了一种新的观点,可以将“阶段”添加到TSI模型中,以将疾病传播动力学与每个阶段的停留时间分布分配。这些结果也被概括为附录中的年龄结构化TSI模型。最后,作为提出的数值方法效率的原则证明,我们通过非药物干预提供了最佳流行病控制的计算。本报告中描述的许多工具可通过“ Pyross”软件包获得

Epidemic models are useful tools in the fight against infectious diseases, as they allow policy makers to test and compare various strategies to limit disease transmission while mitigating collateral damage on the economy. Epidemic models that are more faithful to the microscopic details of disease transmission can offer more reliable projections, which in turn can lead to more reliable control strategies. For example, many epidemic models describe disease progression via a series of artificial 'stages' or 'compartments' (e.g. exposed, activated, infectious, etc.) but an epidemic model that explicitly tracks time since infection (TSI) can provide a more precise description. At present, epidemic models with 'compartments' are more common than TSI models , largely due to higher computational cost and complexity typically associated with TSI models. Here, however, we show that with the right discretization scheme a TSI model is not much more difficult to solve than a comparment model with three or four 'stages' for the infected class. We also provide a new perspective for adding 'stages' to a TSI model in a way that decouples the disease transmission dynamics from the residence time distributions at each stage. These results are also generalized for age-structured TSI models in an appendix. Finally, as proof-of-principle for the efficiency of the proposed numerical methods, we provide calculations for optimal epidemic control by non-pharmaceutical intervention. Many of the tools described in this report are available through the software package 'pyross'

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