论文标题

使用CNN和基于LSTM的深度学习模型的股票价格预测

Stock Price Prediction Using CNN and LSTM-Based Deep Learning Models

论文作者

Mehtab, Sidra, Sen, Jaydip

论文摘要

长期以来,为股价预测设计强大而准确的预测模型一直是一个积极的研究领域。一方面,许多研究人员认为,有效的市场假设的支持者声称,不可能准确地预测股票价格。文献中存在命题,这些命题表明,如果正确设计和优化,预测模型可以非常准确,可靠地预测股票价格的未来价值。本文为股票价格预测提供了一套基于深度学习的模型。我们使用在2008年12月29日至2020年7月31日的印度国家证券交易所中列出的Nifty 50指数的历史记录进行培训和测试。我们的命题包括建立在卷积神经网络上的两个回归模型以及基于三个长期和短期内存网络的预测模型。为了预测Nifty 50索引记录的开放值,我们采用了一项具有前向验证的多步骤预测技术。在这种方法中,在一周的时间范围内预测了Nifty 50指数的开放值,并且一周结束后,在训练集再次训练之前,在训练集中包括实际的索引值,并进行了下周的预测。我们为我们所有提出的模型提供了有关预测精度的详细结果。结果表明,尽管所有模型都非常准确地预测了Nifty 50的开放值,但单变量编码器解码器卷积LSTM具有前两周数据,因为输入是最准确的模型。另一方面,在执行速度方面,发现输入是最快的模型,该单变量CNN模型被认为是最快的模型。

Designing robust and accurate predictive models for stock price prediction has been an active area of research for a long time. While on one side, the supporters of the efficient market hypothesis claim that it is impossible to forecast stock prices accurately, many researchers believe otherwise. There exist propositions in the literature that have demonstrated that if properly designed and optimized, predictive models can very accurately and reliably predict future values of stock prices. This paper presents a suite of deep learning based models for stock price prediction. We use the historical records of the NIFTY 50 index listed in the National Stock Exchange of India, during the period from December 29, 2008 to July 31, 2020, for training and testing the models. Our proposition includes two regression models built on convolutional neural networks and three long and short term memory network based predictive models. To forecast the open values of the NIFTY 50 index records, we adopted a multi step prediction technique with walk forward validation. In this approach, the open values of the NIFTY 50 index are predicted on a time horizon of one week, and once a week is over, the actual index values are included in the training set before the model is trained again, and the forecasts for the next week are made. We present detailed results on the forecasting accuracies for all our proposed models. The results show that while all the models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 open values, the univariate encoder decoder convolutional LSTM with the previous two weeks data as the input is the most accurate model. On the other hand, a univariate CNN model with previous one week data as the input is found to be the fastest model in terms of its execution speed.

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