论文标题
使用霍克斯流程对社交媒体的传染进行建模
Modeling social media contagion using Hawkes processes
论文作者
论文摘要
当允许重复激活时，社交网络中可能会出现传染动力。这种现象的一个有趣的例子是转发级联，用户可以重新分享其他有公共帐户的人发布的内容。为了建模这种行为，我们使用霍克斯自我激发过程。尽管需要校准正在考虑的模型，但要正确执行此操作。本文的主要目的是构建估计该模型的时刻方法。关键步骤是基于识别霍克斯流程的生成器。我们也对实际数据进行数值分析。
The contagion dynamics can emerge in social networks when repeated activation is allowed. An interesting example of this phenomenon is retweet cascades where users allow to re-share content posted by other people with public accounts. To model this type of behaviour we use a Hawkes self-exciting process. To do it properly though one needs to calibrate model under consideration. The main goal of this paper is to construct moments method of estimation of this model. The key step is based on identifying of a generator of a Hawkes process. We perform numerical analysis on real data as well.
