论文标题
COVID-19大流行病的最快检测
Quickest Detection of COVID-19 Pandemic Onset
论文作者
论文摘要
本文开发了Page的Cusum最快速检测测试的易于实现的版本，旨在在某些复合假设方案中使用随时间变化的数据统计。决策统计量可以以递归形式进行，并且特别适合在线分析。通过对公共可用的Covid-19数据进行回顾，我们发现了对感染爆发的可靠预警，实际上，该工具可能很早就可以用于决策者，以实现未来可能需要采取的限制性措施的时间。
This paper develops an easily-implementable version of Page's CUSUM quickest-detection test, designed to work in certain composite hypothesis scenarios with time-varying data statistics. The decision statistic can be cast in a recursive form and is particularly suited for on-line analysis. By back-testing our approach on publicly-available COVID-19 data we find reliable early warning of infection flare-ups, in fact sufficiently early that the tool may be of use to decision-makers on the timing of restrictive measures that may in the future need to be taken.
