论文标题
具有分段恒定强度函数的级别COX过程的确切贝叶斯推断
Exact Bayesian inference for level-set Cox processes with piecewise constant intensity function
论文作者
论文摘要
本文提出了一种新方法,以对一类多维COX过程进行贝叶斯推断,其中强度函数是分段常数的。具有分段恒定强度函数的泊松过程被认为适合对各种点过程现象进行建模,并且鉴于其简单的结构,与具有非参数且连续变化的强度函数相比,预计其更简单的结构将提供更精确的推断。空间域的分区通过潜在高斯过程的级别函数灵活地确定。尽管可能性函数和参数空间的无限维度具有棘手的性能,但在不使用空间离散化近似值的意义上,并且MCMC错误是唯一的不准确性来源。这是通过使用回顾性采样技术并设计伪划分的无限二维MCMC算法来实现的,该算法会收敛到确切的目标后验分布。通过考虑最近的邻居高斯过程,可以通过考虑大型数据集进行计算效率。还提出了考虑时空模型的扩展。在模拟示例中研究了所提出的方法的效率,并在某些实际点过程数据集的分析中说明了其适用性。
This paper proposes a new methodology to perform Bayesian inference for a class of multidimensional Cox processes in which the intensity function is piecewise constant. Poisson processes with piecewise constant intensity functions are believed to be suitable to model a variety of point process phenomena and, given its simpler structure, are expected to provide more precise inference when compared to processes with non-parametric and continuously varying intensity functions. The partition of the space domain is flexibly determined by a level-set function of a latent Gaussian process. Despite the intractability of the likelihood function and the infinite dimensionality of the parameter space, inference is performed exactly, in the sense that no space discretization approximation is used and MCMC error is the only source of inaccuracy. That is achieved by using retrospective sampling techniques and devising a pseudo-marginal infinite-dimensional MCMC algorithm that converges to the exact target posterior distribution. Computational efficiency is favored by considering a nearest neighbor Gaussian process, allowing for the analysis of large datasets. An extension to consider spatiotemporal models is also proposed. The efficiency of the proposed methodology is investigated in simulated examples and its applicability is illustrated in the analysis of some real point process datasets.