论文标题

了解恶性疟原虫配子细胞生产的动态:年龄结构化模型的见解

Understanding dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes production: Insights from an age-structured model

论文作者

Djidjou-Demasse, Ramsès, Ducrot, Arnaud, Mideo, Nicole, Texier, Gaëtan

论文摘要

自Anderson等人开创性工作以来,已经制定了许多宿主内疟疾感染动力学模型。在1989年。从生物学上讲,这些模型的目的是了解什么控制了感染的严重程度,感染性的模式及其在各个宿主之间的变化。从数学上讲,这些模型基于动力学系统,其标准方法从k校区的普通微分方程(ODE)到延迟微分方程(DDES),以捕获相对恒定的复制持续时间和一旦寄生虫感染宿主红细胞。使用疟疾疗法数据,该数据提供了许多单个宿主感染动力学的精细分辨率,我们将这些标准方法之一(K-Compartments Ode)之一的拟合度和鲁棒性与部分微分方程(PDES)模型进行了比较,该方程(PDES)模型明确跟踪了感染细胞的“年龄”。尽管这两种模型在适当选择的K的合适性方面都相似,但当重复隔间数量不够大的时候,K-Compartments Ode模型特别高于感染的早期寄生虫密度。最后,K-Compartments Ode模型(适合选择的K)和PDE模型突出了可传播的寄生虫阶段的密度(即配子细胞)与宿主受损(和无性重复)寄生虫阶段之间的牢固定性联系。这一发现提供了一种简单的工具,可以预测哪些宿主对蚊子的感染最感染 - \ emph {plasmodium}寄生虫的媒介 - 这是全球控制和消除疟疾的关键组成部分。

Many models of within-host malaria infection dynamics have been formulated since the pioneering work of Anderson et al. in 1989. Biologically, the goal of these models is to understand what governs the severity of infections, the patterns of infectiousness, and the variation thereof across individual hosts. Mathematically, these models are based on dynamical systems, with standard approaches ranging from K-compartments ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to delay differential equations (DDEs), to capture the relatively constant duration of replication and bursting once a parasite infects a host red blood cell. Using malariatherapy data, which offers fine-scale resolution on the dynamics of infection across a number of individual hosts, we compare the fit and robustness of one of these standard approaches (K-compartments ODE) with a partial differential equations (PDEs) model, which explicitly tracks the "age" of an infected cell. While both models perform quite similarly in terms of goodness-of-fit for suitably chosen K, the K-compartments ODE model particularly overestimates parasite densities early on in infections when the number of repeated compartments is not large enough. Finally, the K-compartments ODE model (for suitably chosen K) and the PDE model highlight a strong qualitative connection between the density of transmissible parasite stages (i.e., gametocytes) and the density of host-damaging (and asexually-replicating) parasite stages. This finding provides a simple tool for predicting which hosts are most infectious to mosquitoes -- vectors of \emph{Plasmodium} parasites -- which is a crucial component of global efforts to control and eliminate malaria.

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