论文标题
在人口密度不均匀的国家中，Covid-19的幂律多波模型
Power-law multi-wave model for COVID-19 propagation in countries with nonuniform population density
论文作者
论文摘要
COVID-19的现象学数学模型是针对人口密度分化的大国。根据模型，COVID-19的扩散以不同人口密度不同的区域几乎独立且同时开发了几种时空波的形式。每个波的强度由幂律依赖性描述。依赖性的参数由疾病扩散初始阶段的实际统计数据确定。使用白俄罗斯共和国的统计数据验证了模型模拟的结果。基于开发的模型，在2020年5月底进行了预测计算。预测在拟议方法中预测3个月案例总数的准确性约为3％。
The phenomenological mathematical model of COVID-19 spreading is proposed for large countries with geographical differentiation of population density. According to the model COVID-19 spreading takes the form of several spatio-temporal waves developing almost independently and simultaneously in areas with different population density. The intensity of each wave is described by a power-law dependence. The parameters of dependence are determined by real statistical data at the initial stage of the disease spread. The results of the model simulation were verified using statistical data for the Republic of Belarus. Based on the developed model, a forecast calculation was made at the end of May, 2020. The accuracy of forecasting the total number of cases for a period of 3 months in the proposed approach was about 3 percent.
