论文标题
由于一定差二氧化碳和峰值化石燃料的情况，全球均值温度趋势的预测至2100
Forecasts of the trend in global-mean temperature to 2100 arising from the scenarios of first-difference CO2 and peak fossil fuel
论文作者
论文摘要
在IPCC使用的情况范围内（代表性浓度路径方案）范围内，两个未来的场景并未明确。这两种情况是化石燃料峰值下的排放趋势（例如，Mohr等，2015）；以及从Leggett and Ball（2015）最近显示的一定程度的二氧化碳与温度之间的关系确定的气候灵敏度。由于这两种情况的效果，本文提供了对2100的全球表面温度轨迹的预测。时间序模型开发出高统计学意义，并且在其预测中融合，因此增加了发现的潜在鲁棒性。在峰值化石燃料和第一差异二氧化碳方案的效果下，我们发现预计温度将继续升高，但只有轻轻地升高，直到2023年左右，它的水平略高于目前的水平。从那时起，也显示出稳定的稳定减小。结果表明，该轨迹明显低于IPCC业务与常规级别CO2（RCP8.5）模型（Riahi etal。2011）产生的轨迹。这些较低的结果证据表明，气候问题可能需要比目前认为必要的预防措施更少。如果是这样，则强调同样的证据支持化石燃料问题需要改善作用的情况。这项全球要求的行动与气候相同（正如《巴黎气候变化协议》在2015年在巴黎采用的第21届联合国民异incecc（UNFCCC）当事各方的气候变化协议所体现的）：快速过渡到主要可再生全球能源系统。
Two future scenarios that are not explicitly in the range of scenarios (the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios) utilised by the IPCC. These two scenarios are the emissions trend under peak fossil fuel (for example, Mohr et al., 2015); and the climate sensitivity determinable from the relationship between first-difference CO2 and temperature recently shown by Leggett and Ball (2015). This paper provides forecasts of a global surface temperature trajectory to 2100 resulting from the effect of these two scenarios. The time-series models developed both displayed high statistical significance and converged in their forecasts, so adding to the potential robustness of the findings. Under the effect of the combination of the peak fossil fuel and first-difference CO2 scenarios, we found that temperature is forecast to continue to rise, but only gently, until around 2023 where it reaches a level slightly higher than at present; and from then to display an also gentle steady decrease. It is shown that this trajectory is markedly lower than that generated by the IPCC business-as-usual level-of-CO2 (RCP8.5) model (Riahi et al. 2011). These lower results are evidence that the climate problem may require less future preventative action than is presently being considered necessary. If so, it is stressed that the same evidence is support for the case that the peak fossil fuel problem would require ameliorative action. This globally required action is the same as it would have been for climate (as embodied in the Paris Agreement on Climate Change of the 21st Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC in Paris adopted in 2015): the rapid transition to a predominantly renewable global energy system.
