论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

Estimating Rate of Change for Nonlinear Trajectories in the Framework of Individual Measurement Occasions: A New Perspective on Growth Curves

论文作者

Liu, Jin, Perera, Robert A.

论文摘要

研究人员通常有兴趣检查个体内部过程中的个体差异。如果长时间跟踪正在调查的过程,则其轨迹可能会显示一定程度的非线性,因此变化的速率不变。建模此类非线性过程的一个基本目标是估计反映变化有意义方面的模型参数,包括与变化相关的参数和其他揭示实质性假设的参数。但是,如果测量场合是非结构化的,则现有模型不能同时估算这两种类型的参数。本文有三个目标。首先,我们将随着时间的变化视为变化速率与时间(R-T)图的曲线(AUC)下的区域。其次,在时间间隔内中间,使用瞬时变化速率来近似该间隔内平均变化率,我们提出了一项新规范来描述纵向过程。除了获得与特定研究问题相关的单个变化相关参数和其他参数外,新规范还允许在每个波周围有不平等的空间研究波和个人测量场合。第三,我们得出了基于模型的间隔特异性变化和依赖基线的变化,这是一项评估随时间变化的两种常见措施。我们通过仿真研究和现实世界数据分析评估了提出的规范。我们还为每个模型提供了新规范的OpenMX和MPLU 8代码。

Researchers are often interested in examining between-individual differences in within-individual processes. If the process under investigation is tracked for a long time, its trajectory may show a certain degree of nonlinearity, so that the rate-of-change is not constant. A fundamental goal of modeling such nonlinear processes is to estimate model parameters that reflect meaningful aspects of change, including the parameters related to change and other parameters that shed light on substantive hypotheses. However, if the measurement occasion is unstructured, existing models cannot simultaneously estimate these two types of parameters. This article has three goals. First, we view the change over time as the area under the curve (AUC) of the rate-of-change versus time (r-t) graph. Second, using the instantaneous rate-of-change midway through a time interval to approximate the average rate-of-change during that interval, we propose a new specification to describe longitudinal processes. In addition to obtaining the individual change-related parameters and other parameters related to specific research questions, the new specification allows for unequally-space study waves and individual measurement occasions around each wave. Third, we derive the model-based interval-specific change and change-from-baseline, two common measures to evaluate change over time. We evaluate the proposed specification through a simulation study and a real-world data analysis. We also provide OpenMx and Mplus 8 code for each model with the novel specification.

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