论文标题
印度和中国新车市场中的燃油消耗弹性，反弹效应和费用有效性
Fuel consumption elasticities, rebound effect and feebate effectiveness in the Indian and Chinese new car markets
论文作者
论文摘要
中国和印度是全球两个人口最多的发展经济体，也是世界上最大的汽车市场和碳发射器之一。为了减少乘用车行业的碳排放，两个国家都考虑了影响燃油价格，汽车价格和燃油经济性的各种政策杠杆。这项研究估计了中国和印度新车购买者对包括收入在内的政策杠杆和司机的响应能力。此外，我们估计了反弹效应的潜力和费用政策的有效性。为了实现这一目标，我们根据来自印度和中国大约8000名新车购买者的偏好调查数据开发了一种共同的汽车选择和使用模型，他们在2016 - 17年购买了汽车。以购买新车的条件，发现两个市场的燃料消耗对燃料价格和收入相对不响应，弹性估计的幅度在0.12至0.15之间。对于这两个市场，相对于汽车价格和燃油经济性的平均细分级直接弹性弹性含量从0.57到0.65不等。发现印度的燃油经济性提高所带来的燃油节省的反弹影响为17.1％，中国为18.8％。收入中立的费用政策，平均折扣和费用高达零售价的15％左右，这两个市场的燃油节省量约为0.7％。尽管Feebate政策的反弹效应较低-7.3％，而中国为1.6％，但似乎并不是有效的燃油保护政策。
China and India, the world's two most populous developing economies, are also among the world's largest automotive markets and carbon emitters. To reduce carbon emissions from the passenger car sector, both countries have considered various policy levers affecting fuel prices, car prices and fuel economy. This study estimates the responsiveness of new car buyers in China and India to such policy levers and drivers including income. Furthermore, we estimate the potential for rebound effect and the effectiveness of a feebate policy. To accomplish this, we developed a joint discrete-continuous model of car choice and usage based on revealed preference survey data from approximately 8000 new car buyers from India and China who purchased cars in 2016-17. Conditional on buying a new car, the fuel consumption in both markets is found to be relatively unresponsive to fuel price and income, with magnitudes of elasticity estimates ranging from 0.12 to 0.15. For both markets, the mean segment-level direct elasticities of fuel consumption relative to car price and fuel economy range from 0.57 to 0.65. The rebound effect on fuel savings due to cost-free fuel economy improvement is found to be 17.1% for India and 18.8% for China. A revenue-neutral feebate policy, with average rebates and fees of up to around 15% of the retail price, resulted in fuel savings of around 0.7% for both markets. While the feebate policy's rebound effect is low - 7.3% for India and 1.6% for China - it does not appear to be an effective fuel conservation policy.
