论文标题
项目管理中的十大行为偏见：概述
Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management: An Overview
论文作者
论文摘要
行为科学目睹了行为科学家确定的偏见数量的爆炸，目前有200多个。本文确定了项目管理的10个最重要的行为偏见。首先，我们认为将行为偏见等同于认知偏见是一个错误。认知偏见是故事的一半。政治偏见。其次，我们列出了项目管理中的前十大行为偏见：（1）战略性虚假陈述，（2）乐观主义偏见，（3）独特性偏见，（4）计划谬误，（5）过度自信的偏见，（6）后视偏见，（7）可用性偏见，（7）基本费率谬误，（8）基本费率谬误，（9）锚定，（9）锚定和（10）锚定。定义了每个偏见，并用示例解释了其对项目管理的影响。第三，将基本利率忽略确定为投射表现不佳的主要原因。这是由2062个项目中项目管理奖学金中最全面的一组基本利率的介绍所支持的。最后，最新的项目绩效中权力法结果的发现被确定为发现项目管理的一般理论的第一阶段，对项目成果的基本和科学解释比常规理论中的更基本和更科学的解释。
Behavioral science has witnessed an explosion in the number of biases identified by behavioral scientists, to more than 200 at present. This article identifies the 10 most important behavioral biases for project management. First, we argue it is a mistake to equate behavioral bias with cognitive bias, as is common. Cognitive bias is half the story; political bias the other half. Second, we list the top 10 behavioral biases in project management: (1) strategic misrepresentation, (2) optimism bias, (3) uniqueness bias, (4) the planning fallacy, (5) overconfidence bias, (6) hindsight bias, (7) availability bias, (8) the base rate fallacy, (9) anchoring, and (10) escalation of commitment. Each bias is defined, and its impacts on project management are explained, with examples. Third, base rate neglect is identified as a primary reason that projects underperform. This is supported by presentation of the most comprehensive set of base rates that exist in project management scholarship, from 2,062 projects. Finally, recent findings of power law outcomes in project performance are identified as a possible first stage in discovering a general theory of project management, with more fundamental and more scientific explanations of project outcomes than found in conventional theory.
