论文标题

在极端洪水期间,当地对道路网络的影响以及进入关键地点

Local impacts on road networks and access to critical locations during extreme floods

论文作者

Loreti, Simone, Ser-Giacomi, Enrico, Zischg, Andreas, Keiler, Margreth, Barthelemy, Marc

论文摘要

从1998年到2017年,洪水影响了全球超过20亿人的洪水,由于气候变暖,人口增长和迅速的城市化,预计其发生率将增加。在面对洪水时,最新的方法是理解运输网络的弹性,主要是使用渗透框架,但我们在这里显示了现实的高分辨率洪水模拟,这是不够的。确实,巨型连接的组件无关紧要,相反,我们建议以当地城镇的可及性来分配道路网络,并定义特征洪水事件影响的新措施。我们的分析允许在洪水期间识别至关重要的城市,通过向许多个人关键服务(例如住院服务,食品供应等)提供。这种方法与实际风险管理特别相关,并将帮助决策者在时空中分配资源。

Floods affected more than 2 billion people worldwide from 1998 to 2017 and their occurrence is expected to increase due to climate warming, population growth and rapid urbanization. Recent approaches for understanding the resilience of transportation networks when facing floods mostly use the framework of percolation but we show here on a realistic high-resolution flood simulation that it is inadequate. Indeed, the giant connected component is not relevant and instead, we propose to partition the road network in terms of accessibility of local towns and define new measures that characterize the impact of the flooding event. Our analysis allows to identify cities that will be pivotal during the flooding by providing to a large number of individuals critical services such as hospitalization services, food supply, etc. This approach is particularly relevant for practical risk management and will help decision makers for allocating resources in space and time.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源