论文标题

战术:时间序列的变压器 - 注意力

TACTiS: Transformer-Attentional Copulas for Time Series

论文作者

Drouin, Alexandre, Marcotte, Étienne, Chapados, Nicolas

论文摘要

时间变化数量的估计是医疗保健和金融等领域决策的基本组成部分。但是,此类估计值的实际实用性受到它们量化预测不确定性的准确程度的限制。在这项工作中,我们解决了估计高维多元时间序列的联合预测分布的问题。我们提出了一种基于变压器体系结构的多功能方法,该方法使用基于注意力的解码器来估算关节分布,该解码器可以学会模仿非参数Copulas的性质。最终的模型具有多种理想的属性:它可以扩展到数百个时间序列,支持预测和插值,可以处理不规则和不均匀的采样数据,并且可以在训练过程中无缝地适应丢失的数据。我们从经验上证明了这些属性,并表明我们的模型在多个现实世界数据集上产生了最新的预测。

The estimation of time-varying quantities is a fundamental component of decision making in fields such as healthcare and finance. However, the practical utility of such estimates is limited by how accurately they quantify predictive uncertainty. In this work, we address the problem of estimating the joint predictive distribution of high-dimensional multivariate time series. We propose a versatile method, based on the transformer architecture, that estimates joint distributions using an attention-based decoder that provably learns to mimic the properties of non-parametric copulas. The resulting model has several desirable properties: it can scale to hundreds of time series, supports both forecasting and interpolation, can handle unaligned and non-uniformly sampled data, and can seamlessly adapt to missing data during training. We demonstrate these properties empirically and show that our model produces state-of-the-art predictions on multiple real-world datasets.

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