论文标题
得分驱动的广义健身模型,用于稀疏和加权的时间网络
Score Driven Generalized Fitness Model for Sparse and Weighted Temporal Networks
论文作者
论文摘要
尽管有关时间网络模型的绝大多数文献都集中在二进制图上,但通常可以将重量与每个链接相关联。在这种情况下,数据通过加权或有价值的网络更好地描述。一个重要的事实是,现实世界加权网络通常很少。我们提出了一个新颖的时间变化的参数模型,用于稀疏和加权的时间网络作为健身模型,适当扩展和得分驱动框架的组合。我们考虑一个零增强的广义线性模型来处理权重,并以观察驱动的方法来描述时间变化的参数。结果是一种灵活的方法,其中链接存在的可能性与预期的重量无关。这代表了最近文献中提出的替代规格的关键差异,这与模型的灵活性有关。 我们的方法还适应网络动力学对外部变量的依赖性。我们提出了一个链接预测分析与描述欧元间银行市场中隔夜暴露的数据,并研究了eonia率对银行间网络动态的影响是否随着时间的推移而发生了变化。
While the vast majority of the literature on models for temporal networks focuses on binary graphs, often one can associate a weight to each link. In such cases the data are better described by a weighted, or valued, network. An important well known fact is that real world weighted networks are typically sparse. We propose a novel time varying parameter model for sparse and weighted temporal networks as a combination of the fitness model, appropriately extended, and the score driven framework. We consider a zero augmented generalized linear model to handle the weights and an observation driven approach to describe time varying parameters. The result is a flexible approach where the probability of a link to exist is independent from its expected weight. This represents a crucial difference with alternative specifications proposed in the recent literature, with relevant implications for the flexibility of the model. Our approach also accommodates for the dependence of the network dynamics on external variables. We present a link forecasting analysis to data describing the overnight exposures in the Euro interbank market and investigate whether the influence of EONIA rates on the interbank network dynamics has changed over time.