论文标题
在线展示广告中的广告系列绩效预测的统一框架
A Unified Framework for Campaign Performance Forecasting in Online Display Advertising
论文作者
论文摘要
广告客户通常会在计划在线展示广告活动时选择诸如目标受众,地理区域和竞标价格之类的标准的灵活性,而他们缺乏有关广告系列绩效的预测信息,无法提前优化交付策略,从而浪费了劳动力和预算以进行反馈调整。在本文中,我们旨在预测鉴于某些标准的新活动的关键绩效指标。可解释和准确的结果可以使广告客户能够管理和优化其竞选标准。这项任务面临一些挑战。首先,平台通常会在计划广告活动时为广告商提供各种标准,因为竞标类型之间的巨大差异很难统一估算广告系列的性能。此外,在竞标系统中采用的复杂策略在竞选性能方面引起了极大的波动,这使得估计准确性成为极其棘手的问题。为了应对上述挑战,我们提出了一个新颖的广告系列性能预测框架,该框架首先以统一的重播算法在各种竞标类型下的历史日志上重现了广告系列绩效,其中对匹配和等级等基本拍卖过程进行了重播,从而确保对预测结果的解释性。然后,我们创新地引入了一种多任务学习方法,以校准由难以生产的重播策略带来的估计偏差。该方法捕获了相关预测指标之间的混合校准模式,以将估计结果映射到真实的结果,从而显着提高准确性和效率。 TAOBAO.com的数据集上的实验结果表明,所提出的框架大大优于其他基线,并且在线A/B测试验证了其在现实世界中的有效性。
Advertisers usually enjoy the flexibility to choose criteria like target audience, geographic area and bid price when planning an campaign for online display advertising, while they lack forecast information on campaign performance to optimize delivery strategies in advance, resulting in a waste of labour and budget for feedback adjustments. In this paper, we aim to forecast key performance indicators for new campaigns given any certain criteria. Interpretable and accurate results could enable advertisers to manage and optimize their campaign criteria. There are several challenges for this very task. First, platforms usually offer advertisers various criteria when they plan an advertising campaign, it is difficult to estimate campaign performance unifiedly because of the great difference among bidding types. Furthermore, complex strategies applied in bidding system bring great fluctuation on campaign performance, making estimation accuracy an extremely tough problem. To address above challenges, we propose a novel Campaign Performance Forecasting framework, which firstly reproduces campaign performance on historical logs under various bidding types with a unified replay algorithm, in which essential auction processes like match and rank are replayed, ensuring the interpretability on forecast results. Then, we innovatively introduce a multi-task learning method to calibrate the deviation of estimation brought by hard-to-reproduce bidding strategies in replay. The method captures mixture calibration patterns among related forecast indicators to map the estimated results to the true ones, improving both accuracy and efficiency significantly. Experiment results on a dataset from Taobao.com demonstrate that the proposed framework significantly outperforms other baselines by a large margin, and an online A/B test verifies its effectiveness in the real world.