论文标题
危机和政治两极分化：更好地理解冲击和媒体的时机和影响
Crises and Political Polarization: Towards a Better Understanding of the Timing and Impact of Shocks and Media
论文作者
论文摘要
我们调查危机如何通过对整个2020年美国人的代表性样本进行纵向多波调查来分析变化的时间和渠道，如何改变社会。这种方法使我们能够克服以前的研究的某些局限性，并揭示了新颖的洞察力：（1）在危机期间具有负面经历的个人，在危机中变得更加受益于政治人士，他们的自信不高兴，他们的自信不高兴，他们的自由度使他们变得越来越多，而他们的经验使他们变得越来越多，而他们却在他们的范围内变得更加易受责任。 （2）间接冲击或仅接触危机的影响没有类似的影响； （3）政策的偏好和机构信任可以在消极经历后迅速变化； （4）消费党派媒体可以通过扭曲对现实的看法来减轻或加剧这些影响。在一个实验中，我们发现将个人暴露于相同的信息中可以重新调整失真的看法，并具有持久的效果。使用机器学习模型测试异质治疗效果，我们发现负面的个人经历并没有使个人对信息处理的反应更敏感，这表明生活和感知的经历在危机期间改变偏好方面起着同样重要的作用。
We investigate how crises alter societies by analyzing the timing and channels of change using a longitudinal multi-wave survey of a representative sample of Americans throughout 2020. This methodology allows us to overcome some of the limitations of previous studies and uncover novel insights: (1) individuals with a negative personal experience during a crisis become more pro-welfare spending, in particular for policies they perceive will benefit them personally, and they become less trusting of institutions; (2) indirect shocks or the mere exposure to the crisis doesn't have a similar effect; (3) policy preferences and institutional trust can change quickly after a negative experience; and (4) consuming partisan media can mitigate or exacerbate these effects by distorting perceptions of reality. In an experiment, we find that exposing individuals to the same information can recalibrate distorted perceptions with lasting effects. Using a machine learning model to test for heterogeneous treatment effects, we find a negative personal experience did not make individuals more responsive to the information treatment, suggesting that lived and perceived experiences play an equally important role in changing preferences during a crisis.
