论文标题
多项式概率模型的快速变分贝叶斯方法
Fast variational Bayes methods for multinomial probit models
论文作者
论文摘要
多项式概率模型通常用于分析选择行为。但是,现有的马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC)方法的估计在计算上是昂贵的,这将其适用性限制为大型选择数据集。本文提出了一种差异贝叶斯方法,即使考虑了大量的选择替代方案和观察,该方法是准确且快速的。变异方法通常需要分析表达,以实现未归一化的后部密度和适当的变异家族选择。两者都具有挑战性地在多项式概率中指定,后者的后部需要识别限制,并通过大量潜在公用事业进行增强。我们在潜在公用事业的协方差矩阵上采用球形转换来构建一个不当化的增强后部,以识别参数,并将潜在效用的条件后部作为变异家族的一部分。所提出的方法比MCMC更快,并且可以使大量选择替代方案和大量观察结果可扩展。我们的方法的准确性和可扩展性在数值实验和实际购买数据中进行了100万观测。
The multinomial probit model is often used to analyze choice behaviour. However, estimation with existing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is computationally costly, which limits its applicability to large choice data sets. This paper proposes a variational Bayes method that is accurate and fast, even when a large number of choice alternatives and observations are considered. Variational methods usually require an analytical expression for the unnormalized posterior density and an adequate choice of variational family. Both are challenging to specify in a multinomial probit, which has a posterior that requires identifying restrictions and is augmented with a large set of latent utilities. We employ a spherical transformation on the covariance matrix of the latent utilities to construct an unnormalized augmented posterior that identifies the parameters, and use the conditional posterior of the latent utilities as part of the variational family. The proposed method is faster than MCMC, and can be made scalable to both a large number of choice alternatives and a large number of observations. The accuracy and scalability of our method is illustrated in numerical experiments and real purchase data with one million observations.