论文标题

摄像机:一种成本感,自适应,多增加,有效的可靠性分析的方法

CAMERA: A Method for Cost-aware, Adaptive, Multifidelity, Efficient Reliability Analysis

论文作者

Renganathan, S. Ashwin, Rao, Vishwas, Navon, Ionel M.

论文摘要

估计航空航天系统中故障的可能性是飞行认证和资格的关键要求。故障概率估计涉及解决概率分布的尾巴,当必须查询昂贵的高保真模拟时,蒙特卡洛采样方法是可悲的。我们提出了一种使用多种忠诚度模型的方法,这些模型将精度交易以提高计算效率。具体而言,我们建议使用多倍数高斯流程模型在多重保真度中有效融合模型,从而提供了一种廉价的替代模型,从而使原始模型毫无用处。此外,我们提出了一个新型的顺序\ emph {akicisition函数}基于实验设计框架,该框架可以自动从适当的保真度模型中选择样本,以对最高保真度中的兴趣数量进行预测。 We use our proposed approach in an importance sampling setting and demonstrate our method on the failure level set estimation and probability estimation on synthetic test functions as well as two real-world applications, namely, the reliability analysis of a gas turbine engine blade using a finite element method and a transonic aerodynamic wing test case using Reynolds-averaged Navier--Stokes equations.我们证明,与仅使用单个昂贵的高保真模型相比,我们的方法在使用变化的保真度模型时更准确地预测了故障边界和概率。

Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distribution, and Monte Carlo sampling methods are intractable when expensive high-fidelity simulations have to be queried. We propose a method to use models of multiple fidelities that trade accuracy for computational efficiency. Specifically, we propose the use of multifidelity Gaussian process models to efficiently fuse models at multiple fidelity, thereby offering a cheap surrogate model that emulates the original model at all fidelities. Furthermore, we propose a novel sequential \emph{acquisition function}-based experiment design framework that can automatically select samples from appropriate fidelity models to make predictions about quantities of interest in the highest fidelity. We use our proposed approach in an importance sampling setting and demonstrate our method on the failure level set estimation and probability estimation on synthetic test functions as well as two real-world applications, namely, the reliability analysis of a gas turbine engine blade using a finite element method and a transonic aerodynamic wing test case using Reynolds-averaged Navier--Stokes equations. We demonstrate that our method predicts the failure boundary and probability more accurately and computationally efficiently while using varying fidelity models compared with using just a single expensive high-fidelity model.

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