论文标题

与随机发现的最佳探索可耗尽的资源

Optimal Exploration of an Exhaustible Resource with Stochastic Discoveries

论文作者

Ekeland, Ivar, Schlenker, Wolfram, Tankov, Peter, Wright, Brian

论文摘要

标准的酒店模型假定已知可耗尽资源的库存。我们通过Arrow和Chang扩展了该模型,该模型引入了随机发现,并首次使用IMPULSE CONTRON完全解决了这样的模型。该模型有两个状态变量:“经过验证的”储备以及有限的未探索区域,可用于持续的边际成本,从而导致新发现的泊松过程。我们证明,存在“验证”储量的关键水平的前沿,在上面停止了探索,并以无限速度发生。探索区域的边界正在增加,并且沿着这个临界阈值较高的“验证”储备水平表明稀缺性更大,而不是更少。在对Hotelling规则的随机概括中,储量的预期影子价格以探索性发作的利率上涨。但是,在探索区域耗尽之前实现的价格轨迹可能会在探索时跳下或下降。基于非障碍的条件,预期价格以上述利率限制的利率产生,这与基于观察到的价格历史的大多数经验测试一致。

The standard Hotelling model assumes that the stock of an exhaustible resource is known. We expand on the model by Arrow and Chang that introduced stochastic discoveries and for the first time completely solve such a model using impulse control. The model has two state variables: the "proven" reserves as well as a finite unexplored area available for exploration with constant marginal cost, resulting in a Poisson process of new discoveries. We prove that a frontier of critical levels of "proven" reserves exists, above which exploration is stopped, and below which it happens at infinite speed. This frontier is increasing in the explored area, and higher "proven" reserve levels along this critical threshold are indicative of more scarcity, not less. In this stochastic generalization of Hotelling's rule, the expected shadow price of reserves rises at the rate of interest across exploratory episodes. However, the actual trajectories of prices realized prior to exhaustion of the exploratory area may jump up or down upon exploration. Conditional on non-exhaustion, expected price arises at a rate bounded above by the rate of interest, consistent with most empirical tests based on observed price histories.

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