论文标题

学习隐藏的马尔可夫模型当丢失的观察位置未知时

Learning Hidden Markov Models When the Locations of Missing Observations are Unknown

论文作者

Perets, Binyamin, Kozdoba, Mark, Mannor, Shie

论文摘要

隐藏的马尔可夫模型(HMM)是用于顺序数据分析的最广泛使用的统计模型之一。这种多功能性的关键原因之一是HMM处理丢失的数据的能力。然而,标准的HMM学习算法至关重要的是假设缺失的观测值\ emph {在观测顺序}中是已知的。在经常违反此假设的自然科学中,使用了HMM的特殊变体,通常称为无声HMMS(SHMMS)。尽管它们广泛使用,但这些算法强烈依赖于基础链的特定结构假设,例如循环,从而限制了这些方法的适用性。此外,即使在无环的情况下,这些方法也可能导致重建不良。在本文中,我们考虑了从数据丢失的数据中学习HMM的总体问题。我们提供重建算法,这些算法不需要对基础链的结构进行任何假设,并且与SHMM不同,也可以使用有限的先验知识使用。我们在多种情况下评估和比较算法,测量其重建精度和模型错过指定下的鲁棒性。值得注意的是,我们表明,在适当的规格下,人们可以重建过程动力学以及是否知道丢失的观测位置。

The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is one of the most widely used statistical models for sequential data analysis. One of the key reasons for this versatility is the ability of HMM to deal with missing data. However, standard HMM learning algorithms rely crucially on the assumption that the positions of the missing observations \emph{within the observation sequence} are known. In the natural sciences, where this assumption is often violated, special variants of HMM, commonly known as Silent-state HMMs (SHMMs), are used. Despite their widespread use, these algorithms strongly rely on specific structural assumptions of the underlying chain, such as acyclicity, thus limiting the applicability of these methods. Moreover, even in the acyclic case, it has been shown that these methods can lead to poor reconstruction. In this paper we consider the general problem of learning an HMM from data with unknown missing observation locations. We provide reconstruction algorithms that do not require any assumptions about the structure of the underlying chain, and can also be used with limited prior knowledge, unlike SHMM. We evaluate and compare the algorithms in a variety of scenarios, measuring their reconstruction precision, and robustness under model miss-specification. Notably, we show that under proper specifications one can reconstruct the process dynamics as well as if the missing observations positions were known.

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