论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

Convolutional-Recurrent Neural Network Proxy for Robust Optimization and Closed-Loop Reservoir Management

论文作者

Kim, Yong Do, Durlofsky, Louis J.

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

Production optimization under geological uncertainty is computationally expensive, as a large number of well control schedules must be evaluated over multiple geological realizations. In this work, a convolutional-recurrent neural network (CNN-RNN) proxy model is developed to predict well-by-well oil and water rates, for given time-varying well bottom-hole pressure (BHP) schedules, for each realization in an ensemble. This capability enables the estimation of the objective function and nonlinear constraint values required for robust optimization. The proxy model represents an extension of a recently developed long short-term memory (LSTM) RNN proxy designed to predict well rates for a single geomodel. A CNN is introduced here to processes permeability realizations, and this provides the initial states for the RNN. The CNN-RNN proxy is trained using simulation results for 300 different sets of BHP schedules and permeability realizations. We demonstrate proxy accuracy for oil-water flow through multiple realizations of 3D multi-Gaussian permeability models. The proxy is then incorporated into a closed-loop reservoir management (CLRM) workflow, where it is used with particle swarm optimization and a filter-based method for nonlinear constraint satisfaction. History matching is achieved using an adjoint-gradient-based procedure. The proxy model is shown to perform well in this setting for five different (synthetic) `true' models. Improved net present value along with constraint satisfaction and uncertainty reduction are observed with CLRM. For the robust production optimization steps, the proxy provides O(100) runtime speedup over simulation-based optimization.

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