论文标题
泡沫预测非杀菌令牌（NFTS）：经验研究
Bubble Prediction of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs): An Empirical Investigation
论文作者
论文摘要
我们的研究从经验上预测了不可杀菌令牌（NFTS）的气泡：公共区块链上的可转让且独特的数字资产。这个主题很重要，因为尽管他们在2021年的市场增长强劲，但在项目基础上，NFT并未根据泡沫预测进行调查。具体而言，我们将对数周期性权力法（LPPL）模型应用于与四个主要NFT项目相关的时间序列价格数据。结果表明，截至2021年12月20日，（i）NFT通常处于一个小气泡（预测价格下降），（ii）分散的项目中等泡沫（预测价格下降），（iii）以太坊名称服务和Artblocks项目在小型负面气泡中（价格上涨（价格上涨）。考虑到NFT的异质性，与其他方法的比较以及使用更丰富的数据，未来的工作将涉及预测的完善。
Our study empirically predicts the bubble of non-fungible tokens (NFTs): transferable and unique digital assets on public blockchains. This topic is important because, despite their strong market growth in 2021, NFTs on a project basis have not been investigated in terms of bubble prediction. Specifically, we applied the logarithmic periodic power law (LPPL) model to time-series price data associated with four major NFT projects. The results indicate that, as of December 20, 2021, (i) NFTs, in general, are in a small bubble (a price decline is predicted), (ii) the Decentraland project is in a medium bubble (a price decline is predicted), and (iii) the Ethereum Name Service and ArtBlocks projects are in a small negative bubble (a price increase is predicted). A future work will involve a prediction refinement considering the heterogeneity of NFTs, comparison with other methods, and the use of more enriched data.
