论文标题
低，中和高ECS CMIP6 GCM模拟与ERA5-T2M的高级测试
Advanced testing of low, medium and high ECS CMIP6 GCM simulations versus ERA5-T2m
论文作者
论文摘要
CMIP6全局循环模型（GCM）的气候灵敏度（ECS）的平衡从1.83°C到5.67°C不等。此处，将38个GCM分为三个ECS类（低，1.80-3.00°C；中，3.01-4.50°C；高4.51-6.00°C），并与1980- 1990年至2011年至2011-2021的ERA5-T2M记录进行了比较。我们发现，所有具有ECS> 3.0°C的模型高估了观察到的全球表面变暖，并且空间T统计量拒绝了超过60％（使用低ECS GCM）的数据模型一致性，达到地球表面的81％（使用高ECS GCMS）。因此，高和中等EC的GCM不适合预测目的。低-ECS GCM尚未完全令人满意，但是他们发现它们没有警惕，因为到2050年，他们预测了适度的变暖（$ΔT_{prediptulial \ rightArrow2050} \ Lessim2 \：{^\ circ} c $）。
The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of the CMIP6 global circulation models (GCMs) varies from 1.83 °C to 5.67 °C. Herein, 38 GCMs are grouped into three ECS classes (low, 1.80-3.00 °C; medium, 3.01-4.50 °C; high, 4.51-6.00 °C) and compared against the ERA5-T2m records from 1980-1990 to 2011-2021. We found that all models with ECS > 3.0 °C overestimate the observed global surface warming and that spatial t-statistics rejects the data-model agreement over 60% (using low-ECS GCMs) to 81% (using high-ECS GCMs) of the Earth's surface. Thus, the high and medium-ECS GCMs are unfit for prediction purposes. The low-ECS GCMs are not fully satisfactory yet, but they are found unalarming because by 2050 they predict a moderate warming ($ΔT_{preindustrial\rightarrow2050}\lesssim2\:{^\circ}C$).
