论文标题
软件开发工作量估计估计偏差的测量：避免估计偏差的衡量标准
Measurement of software development effort estimation bias: Avoiding biased measures of estimation bias
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们提出了如何衡量估计量估计努力的趋势的改进。提出的方法强调需要知道估计值表示的意图，即我们评估的估计类型以及对给定的估计类型与所使用的偏差度量之间的匹配。我们表明，在应用常用偏见度量时，即使对平均工作量的完美估计也不会导致对零估计偏差的期望：（实际努力 - 估计的努力）/实际努力。相反，这项措施将奖励平均努力的估计不足。我们还提供了与平均值和中值努力估计的偏差措施的例子，并认为通常没有实用的偏见措施来估算最可能的工作。本文结束时对评估软件开发工作估算的偏见的影响。
In this paper, we propose improvements in how estimation bias, e.g., the tendency towards under-estimating the effort, is measured. The proposed approach emphasizes the need to know what the estimates are meant to represent, i.e., the type of estimate we evaluate and the need for a match between the type of estimate given and the bias measure used. We show that even perfect estimates of the mean effort will not lead to an expectation of zero estimation bias when applying the frequently used bias measure: (actual effort - estimated effort)/actual effort. This measure will instead reward under-estimates of the mean effort. We also provide examples of bias measures that match estimates of the mean and the median effort, and argue that there are, in general, no practical bias measures for estimates of the most likely effort. The paper concludes with implications for the evaluation of bias of software development effort estimates.
