论文标题
从大流行到新的正常：根据SVEIQHR型数学模型优化印度尼西亚政府干预措施的策略
From Pandemic to a New Normal: Strategies to Optimise Governmental Interventions in Indonesia Based on an SVEIQHR-Type Mathematical Model
论文作者
论文摘要
印尼政府目前正在实现五种不同形式的干预措施，以终止19日大流行：疫苗接种，社会限制，示踪，测试和治疗方法。在本文中，我们为该国的疾病扩散构建了一个SVEIQHR型数学模型，该模型纳入了上述干预措施的参数以及疫苗的功效。我们确定模型的平衡和基本繁殖数。使用该模型，我们制定了应实现干预措施以优化其影响的策略。结果表明，在无病状态下，当新案件的数量增加时，最好的策略是实施社会限制，而在流行状态下，如果不可取的政策是不可取的，则进行疫苗接种是最好的策略；但是，努力不应主要是针对提高疫苗接种率，而应旨在使用高效率疫苗。
There are five different forms of intervention presently realised by the Indonesian government in an effort to end the COVID-19 pandemic: vaccinations, social restrictions, tracings, testings, and treatments. In this paper, we construct an SVEIQHR-type mathematical model for the disease's spread in the country, which incorporates as parameters the rates of the above interventions, as well as the vaccine's efficacy. We determine the model's equilibria and basic reproduction number. Using the model, we formulate strategies by which the interventions should be realised in order to optimise their impact. The results show that, in a disease-free state, when the number of new cases rises, the best strategy is to implement social restrictions, whereas in an endemic state, if a near-lockdown policy is undesirable, carrying out vaccinations is the best strategy; however, efforts should be aimed not primarily towards increasing the vaccination rate, but towards the use of high-efficacy vaccines.
