论文标题

建模长期护理设施中的Covid-19最佳测试策略:一种基于优化的方法

Modeling COVID-19 optimal testing strategies in long-term care facilities: An optimization-based approach

论文作者

Davoodi, Mansoor, Batista, Ana, Senapati, Abhishek, Schlechte-Welnicz, Weronika, Wagner, Birgit, Calabrese, Justin M.

论文摘要

长期护理设施已受到19日大流行的广泛影响。由于感染老年人的死亡风险较高,退休屋特别容易受到伤害。一旦发生爆发,抑制病毒在退休家庭中的传播就具有挑战性,因为居民彼此接触,隔离措施不能被广泛执行。另一方面,定期测试策略已被证明可以有效防止退休之家爆发。但是,高频测试可能会消耗大量的员工工作时间,从而导致在投资测试的时间与为居民提供必要的护理所花费的时间之间的权衡。因此,制定最佳测试策略对于主动检测感染至关重要,同时保证在这些设施中有效使用有限的员工时间。尽管已经做出了许多努力来防止病毒在长期护理设施中扩散,但这是第一个基于正式优化方法制定测试策略的研究。本文提出了两个用于测试时间表的新型优化模型。考虑到感染的可能性和员工工作量之间的权衡,这些模型旨在最大程度地降低退休家庭感染的风险。我们与优化模型一起采用了一种概率方法,以计算感染风险,包括接触率,发病率状态和居民感染的可能性。为了解决模型,我们通过利用最佳解决方案的对称属性提出了增强的本地搜索算法。我们通过实际尺寸的实例执行了几项实验,并表明所提出的方法可以得出最佳的测试策略。

Long-term care facilities have been widely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Retirement homes are particularly vulnerable due to the higher mortality risk of infected elderly individuals. Once an outbreak occurs, suppressing the spread of the virus in retirement homes is challenging because the residents are in contact with each other, and isolation measures cannot be widely enforced. Regular testing strategies, on the other hand, have been shown to effectively prevent outbreaks in retirement homes. However, high frequency testing may consume substantial staff working time, which results in a trade-off between the time invested in testing, and the time spent providing essential care to residents. Thus, developing an optimal testing strategy is crucial to proactively detect infections while guaranteeing efficient use of limited staff time in these facilities. Although numerous efforts have been made to prevent the virus from spreading in long-term care facilities, this is the first study to develop testing strategies based on formal optimization methods. This paper proposes two novel optimization models for testing schedules. The models aim to minimize the risk of infection in retirement homes, considering the trade-off between the probability of infection and staff workload. We employ a probabilistic approach in conjunction with the optimization models, to compute the risk of infection, including contact rates, incidence status, and the probability of infection of the residents. To solve the models, we propose an enhanced local search algorithm by leveraging the symmetry property of the optimal solution. We perform several experiments with realistically sized instances and show that the proposed approach can derive optimal testing strategies.

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