论文标题
使用转移学习预测低数据设置中的新疾病
Forecasting new diseases in low-data settings using transfer learning
论文作者
论文摘要
最近的传染病暴发,例如COVID-19大流行和巴西的寨卡病毒,已经证明了准确预测新型新型传染病的重要性和困难。当新疾病首先出现时,我们对传播过程,重新感染的免疫力的水平和持续时间或构建现实的流行病学模型所需的其他参数知之甚少。时间序列的预测和机器学习虽然较少依赖于对该疾病的假设,但仍需要大量数据,这些数据在爆发的早期阶段也无法使用。在这项研究中,我们研究了相关疾病的知识如何使用转移学习对数据筛选环境中的新疾病进行预测。我们同时实施一种经验和理论方法。使用来自巴西的经验数据,我们比较了不同的机器学习模型如何在两种不同的疾病对之间传递知识:(i)登革热和寨卡病毒,以及(ii)流感和艾滋病。在理论分析中,我们使用SIR隔间模型使用不同的传输和恢复速率生成数据,然后比较不同传递学习方法的有效性。我们发现,转移学习提供了改善预测的潜力,甚至超出了基于目标疾病数据的模型,尽管必须仔细选择适当的来源疾病。尽管不完美,但这些模型在大流行反应期间为决策者提供了额外的输入。
Recent infectious disease outbreaks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Zika epidemic in Brazil, have demonstrated both the importance and difficulty of accurately forecasting novel infectious diseases. When new diseases first emerge, we have little knowledge of the transmission process, the level and duration of immunity to reinfection, or other parameters required to build realistic epidemiological models. Time series forecasts and machine learning, while less reliant on assumptions about the disease, require large amounts of data that are also not available in early stages of an outbreak. In this study, we examine how knowledge of related diseases can help make predictions of new diseases in data-scarce environments using transfer learning. We implement both an empirical and a theoretical approach. Using empirical data from Brazil, we compare how well different machine learning models transfer knowledge between two different disease pairs: (i) dengue and Zika, and (ii) influenza and COVID-19. In the theoretical analysis, we generate data using different transmission and recovery rates with an SIR compartmental model, and then compare the effectiveness of different transfer learning methods. We find that transfer learning offers the potential to improve predictions, even beyond a model based on data from the target disease, though the appropriate source disease must be chosen carefully. While imperfect, these models offer an additional input for decision makers during pandemic response.