论文标题
O4运行中二进制中子星合并合并的多理智观察
Multi-messenger observations of binary neutron star mergers in the O4 run
论文作者
论文摘要
我们对在即将到来的第四次观察跑步（O4）的中子二进制二进制合并的数量和特性提出了现实的期望，该探测器（O4）的目的是为观察策略的优化提供指导。我们的预测基于种群综合模型，该模型包括GW信噪比，Kilonova（KN）光学和近红外光曲线，相对论的喷气伽马射线爆发（GRB）及时发射峰值光子通量以及无线电，光学和X射线中的Afterglow Light曲线。在我们的假设中，O4期间要自信检测到的GW事件的速率为$ 7.7^{+11.9} _ { - 5.7} $ yr $^{ - 1} $（日历年），其中78％将产生kN，而较低的52％也将产生相对的喷气机。当前的光电磁搜索和后续策略的典型深度仍然足以检测O4中的大部分KNE，但仅在第一个或两个晚上。检测相对论喷气发射的前景是没有希望的。尽管更近的事件（在z <0.02之内）可能仍会有可检测到的茧冲击突破，但大多数事件都会丢失其GRB发射（及时和余辉），除非在观看良好的角度上看到。这将可检测到的喷气机的事件的分数降低到2％（及时排放，偶然性）和10％（余波，深度无线电监控），对应于$ 0.17^{+0.26} _ {-0.13} $ 0.17^{+0.26} $ { - 0.13} $和$ 0.78^$ 0.78^{+1.21} {+1.21} $ _ { - 0.58} $^$^$^$ yr^$^$^ - Yr^$^$^$ r.r.r. yr^$^$^}当考虑由GRB检测触发的GW子阈值搜索时，我们预测的GW+GRB提示发射检测率将增加到更有希望的$ 0.75^{+1.16} _ { - 0.55} $ yr $^$^{ - 1} $。
We present realistic expectations for the number and properties of neutron star binary mergers to be detected as multi-messenger sources during the upcoming fourth observing run (O4) of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA gravitational wave (GW) detectors, with the aim of providing guidance for the optimization of observing strategies. Our predictions are based on a population synthesis model which includes the GW signal-to-noise ratio, the kilonova (KN) optical and near-infrared light curves, the relativistic jet gamma-ray burst (GRB) prompt emission peak photon flux, and the afterglow light curves in radio, optical and X-rays. Within our assumptions, the rate of GW events to be confidently detected during O4 is $7.7^{+11.9}_{-5.7}$ yr$^{-1}$ (calendar year), 78% of which will produce a KN, and a lower 52% will also produce a relativistic jet. The typical depth of current optical electromagnetic search and follow up strategies is still sufficient to detect most of the KNe in O4, but only for the first night or two. The prospects for detecting relativistic jet emission are not promising. While closer events (within z<0.02) will likely still have a detectable cocoon shock breakout, most events will have their GRB emission (both prompt and afterglow) missed unless seen under a favorably small viewing angle. This reduces the fraction of events with detectable jets to 2% (prompt emission, serendipitous) and 10% (afterglow, deep radio monitoring), corresponding to detection rates of $0.17^{+0.26}_{-0.13}$ and $0.78^{+1.21}_{-0.58}$ yr$^{-1}$, respectively. When considering a GW sub-threshold search triggered by a GRB detection, our predicted rate of GW+GRB prompt emission detections increases up to a more promising $0.75^{+1.16}_{-0.55}$ yr$^{-1}$.
