论文标题
探索神经网络预测太阳风湍流统计的潜力
Exploring the potential of neural networks to predict statistics of solar wind turbulence
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Time series datasets often have missing or corrupted entries, which need to be ignored in subsequent data analysis. For example, in the context of space physics, calibration issues, satellite telemetry issues, and unexpected events can make parts of a time series unusable. Various approaches exist to tackle this problem, including mean/median imputation, linear interpolation, and autoregressive modeling. Here we study the utility of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict statistics, particularly second-order structure functions, of turbulent time series concerning the solar wind. Using a dataset with artificial gaps, a neural network is trained to predict second-order structure functions and then tested on an unseen dataset to quantify its performance. A small feedforward ANN, with only 20 hidden neurons, can predict the large-scale fluctuation amplitudes better than mean imputation or linear interpolation when the percentage of missing data is high. Although, they perform worse than the other methods when it comes to capturing both the shape and fluctuation amplitude together, their performance is better in a statistical sense for large fractions of missing data. Caveats regarding their utility, the optimisation procedure, and potential future improvements are discussed.