论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

Addressing Tactic Volatility in Self-Adaptive Systems Using Evolved Recurrent Neural Networks and Uncertainty Reduction Tactics

论文作者

Haq, Aizaz Ul, Deshpande, Niranjana, ElSaid, AbdElRahman, Desell, Travis, Krutz, Daniel E.

论文摘要

自适应系统经常使用策略进行适应。策略示例包括在检测到入侵时实施其他安全措施,或在超过温度阈值时激活冷却机制。战术波动率发生在现实世界系统中,并将其定义为策略属性(例如其延迟或成本)中的可变行为。系统无法有效说明战术波动性会对现实环境的动态产生不利影响。为了实现系统的效率,我们提出了使用进化的复发神经网络(ERNN)提供准确的战术预测的战术波动性意识(TVA-E)过程。 TVA-E也是第一个利用降低不确定性策略来为决策过程提供其他信息并减少不确定性的过程。 TVA-E可以轻松地集成到流行的适应过程中,使其能够立即受益于许多现有的自适应系统。使用52,106策略记录的仿真表明:i)eRNN是一种有效的预测机制,ii)TVA-E代表了对策略波动的现有最新过程的改进,而III)降低了不确定性的策略,对委托战术的动力有益。可以在https://tacticvolatory.github.io/上找到开发的数据集和工具

Self-adaptive systems frequently use tactics to perform adaptations. Tactic examples include the implementation of additional security measures when an intrusion is detected, or activating a cooling mechanism when temperature thresholds are surpassed. Tactic volatility occurs in real-world systems and is defined as variable behavior in the attributes of a tactic, such as its latency or cost. A system's inability to effectively account for tactic volatility adversely impacts its efficiency and resiliency against the dynamics of real-world environments. To enable systems' efficiency against tactic volatility, we propose a Tactic Volatility Aware (TVA-E) process utilizing evolved Recurrent Neural Networks (eRNN) to provide accurate tactic predictions. TVA-E is also the first known process to take advantage of uncertainty reduction tactics to provide additional information to the decision-making process and reduce uncertainty. TVA-E easily integrates into popular adaptation processes enabling it to immediately benefit a large number of existing self-adaptive systems. Simulations using 52,106 tactic records demonstrate that: I) eRNN is an effective prediction mechanism, II) TVA-E represents an improvement over existing state-of-the-art processes in accounting for tactic volatility, and III) Uncertainty reduction tactics are beneficial in accounting for tactic volatility. The developed dataset and tool can be found at https://tacticvolatility.github.io/

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