论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
A Study of Flares in the Ultra-Cool Regime from SPECULOOS-South
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
We present a study of photometric flares on 154 low-mass ($\leq 0.2 \textrm{M}_{\odot}$) objects observed by the SPECULOOS-South Observatory from 1st June 2018 to 23rd March 2020. In this sample we identify 85 flaring objects, ranging in spectral type from M4 to L0. We detect 234 flares in this sample, with energies between $10^{29.2}$ and $10^{32.7}$ erg, using both automated and manual methods. With this work, we present the largest photometric sample of flares on late-M and ultra-cool dwarfs to date. By extending previous M dwarf flare studies into the ultra-cool regime, we find M5-M7 stars are more likely to flare than both earlier, and later, M dwarfs. By performing artificial flare injection-recovery tests we demonstrate that we can detect a significant proportion of flares down to an amplitude of 1 per cent, and we are most sensitive to flares on the coolest stars. Our results reveal an absence of high-energy flares on the reddest dwarfs. To probe the relations between rotation and activity for fully convective stars, we extract rotation periods for fast rotators and lower-bound period estimates of slow rotators. These rotation periods span from 2.2 hours to 65 days, and we find that the proportion of flaring stars increases for the very fastest rotators. Finally, we discuss the impact of our flare sample on planets orbiting ultra-cool stars. As stars become cooler, they flare less frequently; therefore, it is unlikely that planets around the very reddest dwarfs would enter the `abiogenesis' zone or drive visible-light photosynthesis through flares alone.