论文标题
使用Markov链采样的基于代理模型的数据同化
Data assimilation with agent-based models using Markov chain sampling
论文作者
论文摘要
每天,世界各地的天气预报都会利用嘈杂,不完整的大气观察来更新其天气预报。该过程称为数据同化,数据融合或状态估计,最好以贝叶斯推论表示:给定一组观察,一些先前的信念和目标系统模型,一组未观察到的数量或潜在变量的概率分布是什么,可能是将来的某个时候,可能是在未来的概率分布? 尽管数据同化在某些领域迅速发展,但在使用基于代理的模型进行数据同化时,取得了相对较少的进展。这阻碍了基于代理的模型的使用来对现实世界系统提出定量主张。 在这里,我们提出了一种算法,该算法使用Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo方法在一个可能的嘈杂,汇总和不完整的系统观察中生成基于代理模型的参数和轨迹的样本。这可以按原样使用,也可以用作数据同化循环或顺序MCMC算法的一部分。 我们的算法适用于时间步变的基于代理的模型,其代理具有有限的状态和有限的在世界上行动的方式。如提出的那样,该算法仅对具有几个字节的内部状态的代理人是实际的,尽管我们讨论了消除此限制的方法。我们通过使用基于代理的空间捕食者 - 纯模型进行数据同化来证明算法。
Every day, weather forecasting centres around the world make use of noisy, incomplete observations of the atmosphere to update their weather forecasts. This process is known as data assimilation, data fusion or state estimation and is best expressed as Bayesian inference: given a set of observations, some prior beliefs and a model of the target system, what is the probability distribution of some set of unobserved quantities or latent variables at some time, possibly in the future? While data assimilation has developed rapidly in some areas, relatively little progress has been made in performing data assimilation with agent-based models. This has hampered the use of agent-based models to make quantitative claims about real-world systems. Here we present an algorithm that uses Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo methods to generate samples of the parameters and trajectories of an agent-based model over a window of time given a set of possibly noisy, aggregated and incomplete observations of the system. This can be used as-is, or as part of a data assimilation cycle or sequential-MCMC algorithm. Our algorithm is applicable to time-stepping, agent-based models whose agents have a finite set of states and a finite number of ways of acting on the world. As presented the algorithm is only practical for agents with a few bytes of internal state although we discuss ways of removing this restriction. We demonstrate the algorithm by performing data assimilation with an agent-based, spatial predator-prey model.