论文标题
有条件分布处理效果的强大和不可知论
Robust and Agnostic Learning of Conditional Distributional Treatment Effects
论文作者
论文摘要
有条件的平均治疗效果(CATE)是给定基线协变量的单个因果效应的最佳度量。但是,CATE仅捕获(条件)平均值,并且可以忽略对治疗选择很重要的风险和尾巴事件。在汇总分析中,通常通过测量分布治疗效果(DTE)来解决这,例如分位数或治疗组之间的尾巴预期差异。假设地,一个人可以在每个治疗组中类似地拟合有条件的分位数回归并进行差异,但这对于错误指定或提供不可知论的最佳预测并不是可靠的。我们提供了一种新的健壮和模型不足的方法,用于学习有条件的DTE(CDTE),用于一系列问题,其中包括有条件的分数治疗效果,有条件的超级量化治疗效果以及对由$ f $ ddiverence给出的相干风险措施的有条件治疗效果。我们的方法基于构建特殊的伪结果并使用任何回归学习者在协变量上进行回归。我们的方法是模型不合时宜的,因为它可以在回归模型类上提供最佳的CDTE投影。我们的方法是强大的,即使我们以非常缓慢的速度学习这些滋扰,我们仍然可以以取决于类复杂性的速率学习CDTE,甚至可以对CDTE的线性投影进行推断。我们在模拟中调查了提案的行为,以及在401(k)对财富的资格影响的案例研究中。
The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is the best measure of individual causal effects given baseline covariates. However, the CATE only captures the (conditional) average, and can overlook risks and tail events, which are important to treatment choice. In aggregate analyses, this is usually addressed by measuring the distributional treatment effect (DTE), such as differences in quantiles or tail expectations between treatment groups. Hypothetically, one can similarly fit conditional quantile regressions in each treatment group and take their difference, but this would not be robust to misspecification or provide agnostic best-in-class predictions. We provide a new robust and model-agnostic methodology for learning the conditional DTE (CDTE) for a class of problems that includes conditional quantile treatment effects, conditional super-quantile treatment effects, and conditional treatment effects on coherent risk measures given by $f$-divergences. Our method is based on constructing a special pseudo-outcome and regressing it on covariates using any regression learner. Our method is model-agnostic in that it can provide the best projection of CDTE onto the regression model class. Our method is robust in that even if we learn these nuisances nonparametrically at very slow rates, we can still learn CDTEs at rates that depend on the class complexity and even conduct inferences on linear projections of CDTEs. We investigate the behavior of our proposal in simulations, as well as in a case study of 401(k) eligibility effects on wealth.