论文标题
从时空时间序列中的稀疏图学习
Sparse Graph Learning from Spatiotemporal Time Series
论文作者
论文摘要
时空时间序列分析的图神经网络的杰出成就表明,关系约束将有效的电感偏置引入神经预测体系结构。但是,通常不可用的关系信息表征了基本数据生成过程,并且从业者将从数据中推断出的关系图中可以在随后的处理阶段中使用。我们提出了基于原则的(但实用的 - 基于概率得分的方法)的新颖性,这些方法将关系依赖性学习为图表的分布,同时最大程度地提高任务的端到端性能。所提出的图形学习框架基于基于蒙特卡洛得分的梯度估计的综合差异技术,理论上是基础的,并且正如我们所显示的,在实践中有效。在本文中,我们关注时间序列的预测问题,并表明,通过将梯度估计器定制到图表学习问题,我们能够在控制学习图的稀疏性和计算可扩展性的同时实现最新性能。我们从经验上评估了所提出的方法对合成和现实世界基准的有效性,表明所提出的解决方案可以用作独立的图形识别程序以及端到端预测体系结构的图形学习组件。
Outstanding achievements of graph neural networks for spatiotemporal time series analysis show that relational constraints introduce an effective inductive bias into neural forecasting architectures. Often, however, the relational information characterizing the underlying data-generating process is unavailable and the practitioner is left with the problem of inferring from data which relational graph to use in the subsequent processing stages. We propose novel, principled - yet practical - probabilistic score-based methods that learn the relational dependencies as distributions over graphs while maximizing end-to-end the performance at task. The proposed graph learning framework is based on consolidated variance reduction techniques for Monte Carlo score-based gradient estimation, is theoretically grounded, and, as we show, effective in practice. In this paper, we focus on the time series forecasting problem and show that, by tailoring the gradient estimators to the graph learning problem, we are able to achieve state-of-the-art performance while controlling the sparsity of the learned graph and the computational scalability. We empirically assess the effectiveness of the proposed method on synthetic and real-world benchmarks, showing that the proposed solution can be used as a stand-alone graph identification procedure as well as a graph learning component of an end-to-end forecasting architecture.