论文标题
用掠食性鱼类gambusia affinis的Zika感染的矢量宿主模型的非线性动态分析
Nonlinear Dynamic analysis of vector-host model for Zika infection with predatory fish Gambusia Affinis
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们研究了Zika病毒感染的九个隔室矢量 - 主宿主模型的动力学，其中将掠食性鱼类gambusia affinis引入系统中，以通过捕食载体来控制Zika感染。该系统实际上有六个可行的平衡点，其中四个无病，其余的是地方性的。我们讨论平衡的存在和稳定条件。我们发现，当Zika的性传播停止时，在没有蚊子感染的情况下就无法持续存在。因此，需要根除蚊子来消除感染。此外，我们推断出，在寨卡病毒感染的情况下，将基本的繁殖数低于统一的数字几乎是不可能的。因此，O_0，蚊子存活阈值参数和O，蚊子的生存阈值参数和捕食的生存阈值参数在摆脱感染的情况下起着至关重要的作用，因为蚊子在蚊子不足时无法生存。敏感性分析表明，降低向量和寄主之间的蚊子咬合率和相互接触率的重要性。它表现出提高向量自然死亡率以减少基本繁殖数的重要性。数值模拟表明，当基本的繁殖数接近但大于统一时，引入少量掠食性鱼类冈巴西亚affinis可以完全滑动感染。如果传播高或较高的基本繁殖数，则该鱼会增加易感人群，并控制感染，因此禁止其成为流行病。
In the present paper, we study the dynamics of a nine compartmental vector-host model for Zika virus infection where the predatory fish Gambusia Affinis is introduced into the system to control the zika infection by preying on the vector. The system has six practically feasible equilibrium points where four of them are disease-free, and the rest are endemic. We discuss the existence and stability conditions for the equilibria. We find that when sexual transmission of zika comes to a halt then in absence of mosquitoes infection cannot persist. Hence, one needs to eradicate mosquitoes to eradicate infection. Moreover, we deduce that in the case of zika infection pushing the basic reproduction number below unity is next to impossible. Therefore, O_0, the mosquito survival threshold parameter, and O, the mosquito survival threshold parameter with predation play a crucial role in getting rid of the infection in respective cases since mosquitoes cannot survive when these are less than unity. Sensitivity analysis shows the importance of reducing mosquito biting rate and mutual contact rates between vector and host. It exhibits the importance of increasing the natural mortality rate of vectors to reduce the basic reproduction number. Numerical simulation shows that when the basic reproduction number is close but greater than unity, the introduction of a small amount of predatory fish Gambusia Affinis can completely swipe off the infection. In case of high transmission or high basic reproduction number, this fish increases the susceptible human population and keeps the infection under control, hence, prohibiting it from becoming an epidemic.
