论文标题
有效评估风险分配
Efficient evaluation of risk allocations
论文作者
论文摘要
边际对投资组合总风险有条件的期望对于分享风险和分配至关重要。但是,计算这些条件期望可能具有挑战性,尤其是在边际风险具有复合分布或风险依赖时的关键情况下。我们引入了一种生成功能方法来计算这些条件期望。我们提供有效的算法来计算边缘的有条件期望,鉴于具有晶格型支持的风险投资组合的总风险。我们表明,无条件预期分配的普通生成函数是投资组合的多元概率生成函数的函数。生成功能方法使我们能够开发基于递归和转换的技术来计算无条件的预期分配。我们说明了大规模风险分担和风险分配问题的方法,包括边际风险具有复合分布的情况,投资组合由依赖风险组成,风险有重量的尾巴,在某些情况下导致计算上的数量级数量。我们的方法对于基于Euler规则的对等保险和风险分配的风险分享很有用。
Expectations of marginals conditional on the total risk of a portfolio are crucial in risk-sharing and allocation. However, computing these conditional expectations may be challenging, especially in critical cases where the marginal risks have compound distributions or when the risks are dependent. We introduce a generating function method to compute these conditional expectations. We provide efficient algorithms to compute the conditional expectations of marginals given the total risk for a portfolio of risks with lattice-type support. We show that the ordinary generating function of unconditional expected allocations is a function of the multivariate probability generating function of the portfolio. The generating function method allows us to develop recursive and transform-based techniques to compute the unconditional expected allocations. We illustrate our method to large-scale risk-sharing and risk allocation problems, including cases where the marginal risks have compound distributions, where the portfolio is composed of dependent risks, and where the risks have heavy tails, leading in some cases to computational gains of several orders of magnitude. Our approach is useful for risk-sharing in peer-to-peer insurance and risk allocation based on Euler's rule.