论文标题

根据轨迹样品计算的随机模拟器的光谱替代模型

A spectral surrogate model for stochastic simulators computed from trajectory samples

论文作者

Lüthen, Nora, Marelli, Stefano, Sudret, Bruno

论文摘要

随机模拟器是非确定性计算机模型,即使输入参数以固定值保存,每次运行时都会提供不同的响应。当其他不确定性来源影响计算机模型时,它们就会产生,而计算机模型未明确建模为输入参数。随机模拟器的不确定性分析需要对输入变量的不同值的重复评估,以及对潜在潜在随机性的不同实现。此类分析的计算成本可能是相当大的,这激发了可以近似原始模型及其随机响应的替代模型的构建,但可以以更低的成本进行评估。 我们根据光谱膨胀提出了一个随机模拟器的替代模型。考虑到可以反复评估相同基础随机事件的某些随机模拟器,我们将模拟器视为由输入参数空间索引的随机场。为了实现潜在的随机性,模拟器的响应是确定性函数,称为轨迹。基于来自几种此类轨迹的样品,我们通过稀疏的多项式混乱扩展和分析地计算扩展的Karhunen-Loève扩展(KLE)来近似后者,以降低其维度。 KLE的不相关但依赖性的随机变量是由高级统计技术建模的,例如参数推理,藤蔓copula建模和核密度估计。由此产生的替代模型近似于边缘和协方差函数,并允许以低计算成本获得新的实现。我们观察到,在数值示例中,KLE的第一种模式是迄今为止最重要的,并研究了这种现象及其含义。

Stochastic simulators are non-deterministic computer models which provide a different response each time they are run, even when the input parameters are held at fixed values. They arise when additional sources of uncertainty are affecting the computer model, which are not explicitly modeled as input parameters. The uncertainty analysis of stochastic simulators requires their repeated evaluation for different values of the input variables, as well as for different realizations of the underlying latent stochasticity. The computational cost of such analyses can be considerable, which motivates the construction of surrogate models that can approximate the original model and its stochastic response, but can be evaluated at much lower cost. We propose a surrogate model for stochastic simulators based on spectral expansions. Considering a certain class of stochastic simulators that can be repeatedly evaluated for the same underlying random event, we view the simulator as a random field indexed by the input parameter space. For a fixed realization of the latent stochasticity, the response of the simulator is a deterministic function, called trajectory. Based on samples from several such trajectories, we approximate the latter by sparse polynomial chaos expansion and compute analytically an extended Karhunen-Loève expansion (KLE) to reduce its dimensionality. The uncorrelated but dependent random variables of the KLE are modeled by advanced statistical techniques such as parametric inference, vine copula modeling, and kernel density estimation. The resulting surrogate model approximates the marginals and the covariance function, and allows to obtain new realizations at low computational cost. We observe that in our numerical examples, the first mode of the KLE is by far the most important, and investigate this phenomenon and its implications.

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