论文标题
对指示性条件的某些且不确定的推断
Certain and Uncertain Inference with Indicative Conditionals
论文作者
论文摘要
本文为真实条件和自然语言指示条件的可能性开发了三价语义。我们的框架基于W. Cooper首先提出的三价真实条件，并产生了有条件推理的两个逻辑：（i）从某些前提提出的推论逻辑； （ii）不确定前提的推论的逻辑u。但是，尽管c对于条件是单调的，但u却不是，而c遵守ponens，但u并非没有限制。我们在任何一个框架中都显示了推论的三价和概率表示之间的系统对应关系，并且我们使用两个系统之间的区别，尤其是在McGee关于Modus Ponens的难题上铸造光。结果是对指示性有条件的语义和认识论的统一说明，这些语义和认识论可以在分析条件推论的有效性上。
This paper develops a trivalent semantics for the truth conditions and the probability of the natural language indicative conditional. Our framework rests on trivalent truth conditions first proposed by W. Cooper and yields two logics of conditional reasoning: (i) a logic C of inference from certain premises; and (ii) a logic U of inference from uncertain premises. But whereas C is monotonic for the conditional, U is not, and whereas C obeys Modus Ponens, U does not without restrictions. We show systematic correspondences between trivalent and probabilistic representations of inferences in either framework, and we use the distinction between the two systems to cast light, in particular, on McGee's puzzle about Modus Ponens. The result is a unified account of the semantics and epistemology of indicative conditionals that can be fruitfully applied to analyzing the validity of conditional inferences.
