论文标题
通过新颖的满屋建模比较各个时代的棒球运动员
Comparing baseball players across eras via novel Full House Modeling
论文作者
论文摘要
本文开发了一个适合ERA调整棒球统计的新方法框架。在此方法学框架中，特定模型是动机的。我们称这些型号为“满屋”模型。 Full House模型通过在给定赛季和球员来到的MLB人才库的大小中平衡美国职棒大联盟（MLB）球员的成就来工作。我们演示了全室模型的实用性，用于比较整个时代棒球运动员的绩效统计数据。我们的结果揭示了棒球最伟大的球员的新排名，其中包括有史以来最佳球员的几位现代球员。现代球员通过全室建模而提升，因为他们来自更大的人才库。提出了敏感性和多元宇宙分析，这些分析研究了结果如何随着建模输入的变化而变化，包括人才库的估计。
A new methodological framework suitable for era-adjusting baseball statistics is developed in this article. Within this methodological framework specific models are motivated. We call these models Full House Models. Full House Models work by balancing the achievements of Major League Baseball (MLB) players within a given season and the size of the MLB talent pool from which a player came. We demonstrate the utility of Full House Models in an application of comparing baseball players' performance statistics across eras. Our results reveal a new ranking of baseball's greatest players which include several modern players among the top all-time players. Modern players are elevated by Full House Modeling because they come from a larger talent pool. Sensitivity and multiverse analyses which investigate the how results change with changes to modeling inputs including the estimate of the talent pool are presented.
