论文标题

图形神经网络以预测运动结果

Graph Neural Networks to Predict Sports Outcomes

论文作者

Xenopoulos, Peter, Silva, Claudio

论文摘要

预测体育运动对球队,联赛,投注者,媒体和球迷来说很重要。鉴于越来越多的播放器跟踪数据,体育分析模型越来越多地利用在播放器跟踪数据上构建的空间衍生功能。但是,由于常见的建模技术依赖于向量输入,因此不能轻易将特定于玩家的信息作为功能本身包含在内。因此,通常通过全球功能聚合或通过角色签名方案构建了与锚定对象(例如,球或进球的距离)相关的空间特征,在该方案中,玩家在游戏中被指定为独特的作用。在这样做的过程中,我们牺牲了人际关系和地方关系,而是支持全球关系。为了解决这个问题,我们介绍了基于运动表现的游戏状态表示。然后,我们将建议的图表表示作为图形神经网络的输入来预测运动结果。我们的方法可以保留置换不变性,并允许灵活的播放器交互重量。我们证明了我们的方法如何在美式足球和电子竞技的预测任务上对艺术的统计学上有显着的改进,从而将测试套装损失分别减少了9%和20%。此外,我们还展示了如何使用模型来回答运动中的“如果”问题并可视化玩家之间的关系。

Predicting outcomes in sports is important for teams, leagues, bettors, media, and fans. Given the growing amount of player tracking data, sports analytics models are increasingly utilizing spatially-derived features built upon player tracking data. However, player-specific information, such as location, cannot readily be included as features themselves, since common modeling techniques rely on vector input. Accordingly, spatially-derived features are commonly constructed in relation to anchor objects, such as the distance to a ball or goal, through global feature aggregations, or via role-assignment schemes, where players are designated a distinct role in the game. In doing so, we sacrifice inter-player and local relationships in favor of global ones. To address this issue, we introduce a sport-agnostic graph-based representation of game states. We then use our proposed graph representation as input to graph neural networks to predict sports outcomes. Our approach preserves permutation invariance and allows for flexible player interaction weights. We demonstrate how our method provides statistically significant improvements over the state of the art for prediction tasks in both American football and esports, reducing test set loss by 9% and 20%, respectively. Additionally, we show how our model can be used to answer "what if" questions in sports and to visualize relationships between players.

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