论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Robust Tests in Online Decision-Making
论文作者
论文摘要
Bandit算法被广泛用于顺序决策问题,以最大程度地提高累积奖励。一种潜在的应用程序是移动健康,其目标是通过基于通过可穿戴设备获得的用户特定信息来促进用户的健康。重要的考虑因素包括收集数据的类型和频率(例如GPS或连续监视),因为这些因素会严重影响应用程序性能和用户的遵守。为了平衡收集与影响应用程序性能的限制的数据的需求,人们需要能够评估变量的实用性。匪徒反馈数据是连续关联的,因此为独立数据开发的传统测试程序无法应用。最近,针对参与者批判的匪徒算法开发了统计测试程序。演员批评算法维持了两个独立的模型,一个用于演员,行动选择政策,另一个用于评论家,奖励模型。仅当正确指定评论家模型时,算法的性能以及测试的有效性才能保证。但是,由于功能不正确或缺失协变量,在实践中经常进行错误指定。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种经过改进的参与者评论算法,在这种情况下,对批评者的误解是可靠的,并为参与者参数提供了一种新颖的测试程序。
Bandit algorithms are widely used in sequential decision problems to maximize the cumulative reward. One potential application is mobile health, where the goal is to promote the user's health through personalized interventions based on user specific information acquired through wearable devices. Important considerations include the type of, and frequency with which data is collected (e.g. GPS, or continuous monitoring), as such factors can severely impact app performance and users' adherence. In order to balance the need to collect data that is useful with the constraint of impacting app performance, one needs to be able to assess the usefulness of variables. Bandit feedback data are sequentially correlated, so traditional testing procedures developed for independent data cannot apply. Recently, a statistical testing procedure was developed for the actor-critic bandit algorithm. An actor-critic algorithm maintains two separate models, one for the actor, the action selection policy, and the other for the critic, the reward model. The performance of the algorithm as well as the validity of the test are guaranteed only when the critic model is correctly specified. However, misspecification is frequent in practice due to incorrect functional form or missing covariates. In this work, we propose a modified actor-critic algorithm which is robust to critic misspecification and derive a novel testing procedure for the actor parameters in this case.