论文标题
统计数据没有证明Huanan海鲜批发市场是Covid-19的早期中心。
Statistics did not prove that the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic
论文作者
论文摘要
在最近的一项著名研究中，Worobey等人（2022年，Science，377，pp。951--9）声称在统计上证明了Huanan Seafood批发市场是早期Covid-19-19-19s流行病的中心。我们表明，这一统计结论在两个方面是无效的：（1）假设早期案例位置或另一个简单构造的点的质心是未经证实的流行病的起源。 （2）一个蒙特卡洛测试，用于得出结论，除了海鲜市场以外，没有其他位置可能是有缺陷的。因此，尚未通过其统计分析来回答大流行的起源问题。
In a recent prominent study Worobey et al.\ (2022, Science, 377, pp.\ 951--9) purported to demonstrate statistically that the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was the epicenter of the early COVID-19 epidemic. We show that this statistical conclusion is invalid on two grounds: (1) The assumption that a centroid of early case locations or another simply constructed point is the origin of an epidemic is unproved. (2) A Monte Carlo test used to conclude that no other location than the seafood market can be the origin is flawed. Hence, the question of the origin of the pandemic has not been answered by their statistical analysis.
