论文标题
微观交通模型，事故和保险损失
Microscopic Traffic Models, Accidents, and Insurance Losses
论文作者
论文摘要
本文开发了一种方法，以使运输系统的微观模型可以访问交通事故的统计研究。我们的方法不仅允许对历史损失的理解，而且还允许对可能发生的未来系统发生的事件了解。通过这样的反事实分析，从保险中，也可以从工程学的角度来评估车辆和运输系统设计的变化，从而对道路安全性和功能的影响。 从结构上讲，我们将总损耗分布近似为均值变化的混合物。这还产生了可以使用的估值程序，而不是蒙特卡洛模拟。具体而言，我们基于开源交通模拟器Sumo构建实现，并说明了反事实案例研究中该方法的潜力。
The paper develops a methodology to enable microscopic models of transportation systems to be accessible for a statistical study of traffic accidents. Our approach is intended to permit an understanding not only of historical losses, but also of incidents that may occur in altered, potential future systems. Through such a counterfactual analysis, it is possible, from an insurance, but also from an engineering perspective, to assess the impact of changes in the design of vehicles and transport systems in terms of their impact on road safety and functionality. Structurally, we characterize the total loss distribution approximatively as a mean-variance mixture. This also yields valuation procedures that can be used instead of Monte Carlo simulation. Specifically, we construct an implementation based on the open-source traffic simulator SUMO and illustrate the potential of the approach in counterfactual case studies.
