论文标题

在恢复风险下耦合进化行为和疾病动力学

Coupled Evolutionary Behavioral and Disease Dynamics under Reinfection Risk

论文作者

Satapathi, Abhisek, Dhar, Narendra Kumar, Hota, Ashish R., Srivastava, Vaibhav

论文摘要

我们研究涉及恢复风险的流行病的流行动力学与人类决策之间的相互作用;特别是,易感感染感染的(SIS)和易感感染的感染感染(SIRI)流行模型。在拟议的游戏理论环境中,个人选择是否基于采用保护成本和感染风险之间的权衡取舍;后者取决于流行病的当前患病率以及在整个人群中采用保护的个人的比例。我们通过根据复制器动力学对个体保护行为的演变进行建模,来定义耦合的流行行为动力学。对于SIS流行,我们完全表征了平衡及其稳定性。我们进一步分析了比流行病更快的时间尺度分离下的耦合动力学,并表征了SIS和SIRI模型所得不连续的混合动力学系统的平衡。数值结果说明了耦合动力学如何在适当的参数方案下表现出振荡行为和收敛到滑动模式解决方案。

We study the interplay between epidemic dynamics and human decision making for epidemics that involve reinfection risk; in particular, the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) and the susceptible-infected-recovered-infected (SIRI) epidemic models. In the proposed game-theoretic setting, individuals choose whether to adopt protection or not based on the trade-off between the cost of adopting protection and the risk of infection; the latter depends on the current prevalence of the epidemic and the fraction of individuals who adopt protection in the entire population. We define the coupled epidemic-behavioral dynamics by modeling the evolution of individual protection adoption behavior according to the replicator dynamics. For the SIS epidemic, we fully characterize the equilibria and their stability properties. We further analyze the coupled dynamics under timescale separation when individual behavior evolves faster than the epidemic, and characterize the equilibria of the resulting discontinuous hybrid dynamical system for both SIS and SIRI models. Numerical results illustrate how the coupled dynamics exhibits oscillatory behavior and convergence to sliding mode solutions under suitable parameter regimes.

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