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The hope of the quantum computing field is that quantum architectures are able to scale up and realize fault-tolerant quantum computing. Due to engineering challenges, such ''cheap'' error correction may be decades away. In the meantime, we anticipate an era of ''costly'' error correction, or early fault-tolerant quantum computing. Costly error correction might warrant settling for error-prone quantum computations. This motivates the development of quantum algorithms which are robust to some degree of error as well as methods to analyze their performance in the presence of error. Several such algorithms have recently been developed; what is missing is a methodology to analyze their robustness. To this end, we introduce a randomized algorithm for the task of phase estimation and give an analysis of its performance under two simple noise models. In both cases the analysis leads to a noise threshold, below which arbitrarily high accuracy can be achieved by increasing the number of samples used in the algorithm. As an application of this general analysis, we compute the maximum ratio of the largest circuit depth and the dephasing scale such that performance guarantees hold. We calculate that the randomized algorithm can succeed with arbitrarily high probability as long as the required circuit depth is less than 0.916 times the dephasing scale.