论文标题
预测欧洲群岛的电网频率
Predicting the power grid frequency of European islands
论文作者
论文摘要
建模，预测和对电网动态及其频率的整体理解对于现有和未来电网的安全操作至关重要。以前的许多研究都集中在大型大陆地区，而小岛（例如岛屿）的研究较少。这些天然岛系统是微电网提案和人为岛的网格操作的理想测试环境。在本文中，我们利用欧洲群岛获得的电网频率的测量值：法罗群岛，爱尔兰，巴利阿里群岛和冰岛，并研究与北欧电力系统相比如何预测其频率，并作为参考。与难以预测的冰岛形成鲜明对比的是，巴利阿里群岛特别确定性且易于预测。此外，我们表明通常需要2-4周的数据来提高预测性能，而不是简单的基准。
Modelling, forecasting and overall understanding of the dynamics of the power grid and its frequency are essential for the safe operation of existing and future power grids. Much previous research was focused on large continental areas, while small systems, such as islands are less well-studied. These natural island systems are ideal testing environments for microgrid proposals and artificially islanded grid operation. In the present paper, we utilize measurements of the power grid frequency obtained in European islands: the Faroe Islands, Ireland, the Balearic Islands and Iceland and investigate how their frequency can be predicted, compared to the Nordic power system, acting as a reference. The Balearic islands are found to be particularly deterministic and easy to predict in contrast to hard-to-predict Iceland. Furthermore, we show that typically 2-4 weeks of data are needed to improve prediction performance beyond simple benchmarks.
