论文标题
速率引起的倾斜到亚稳态的僵尸火
Rate-Induced Tipping to Metastable Zombie Fires
论文作者
论文摘要
泥炭地的僵尸大火从表面消失,冬季在地下闷烧,春季“重生”。他们每年可以将数百种碳的碳释放到大气中,并被认为是由表面野火引起的。在这里,我们提出了在生物活性泥炭土壤中向地下热稳态的速率引起的倾斜(R-Tipping),这是僵尸火灾的主要原因。我们的假设基于一个概念性的土壤碳模型,该模型在天气和气候模式上发生了现实变化,包括全球变暖场景和夏季热浪。 从数学上讲,由于在多个时间尺度的动力学系统中跨越了难以捉摸的Quasithreshold,因此r倾斜到热亚稳态是一种非自主的不稳定。为了解释这种不稳定,我们提供了一个框架,将特殊的紧凑技术与几何奇异扰动理论的概念结合在一起。该框架使我们能够减少R-Tipping问题,因为将Quasithreshold越过了近极限制的杂斜轨道问题。我们通过以下方式确定了跟踪触发过渡的通用案例:(i)codimension-two杂斜折叠的鞍节节点类型I奇异性,以及(ii)分析夏季热带的编织型鞍形到萨德尔·萨德尔·霍特斜斜轨道,在夏季热带中,揭示了新类型的兴奋性Quasitebility of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of extite quasithithers quasithershords。
Zombie fires in peatlands disappear from the surface, smoulder underground during the winter, and `come back to life' in the spring. They can release hundreds of megatonnes of carbon into the atmosphere per year and are believed to be caused by surface wildfires. Here, we propose rate-induced tipping (R-tipping) to a subsurface hot metastable state in bioactive peat soils as a main cause of Zombie fires. Our hypothesis is based on a conceptual soil-carbon model subjected to realistic changes in weather and climate patterns, including global warming scenarios and summer heatwaves. Mathematically speaking, R-tipping to the hot metastable state is a nonautonomous instability, due to crossing an elusive quasithreshold, in a multiple-timescale dynamical system. To explain this instability, we provide a framework combining a special compactification technique with concepts from geometric singular perturbation theory. This framework allows us to reduce an R-tipping problem due to crossing a quasithreshold to a heteroclinic orbit problem in a singular limit. We identify generic cases of tracking-tipping transitions via: (i) unfolding of a codimension-two heteroclinic folded saddle-node type-I singularity for global warming, and (ii) analysis of a codimension-one saddle-to-saddle hetroclinic orbit for summer heatwaves, in turn revealing new types of excitability quasithresholds.