论文标题

在热带环境中建模降雨和温度对无菌昆虫控制策略的影响

Modeling the impact of rainfall and temperature on sterile insect control strategies in a Tropical environment

论文作者

Dumont, Yves, Duprez, Michel

论文摘要

无菌昆虫技术(SIT)是一种生物控制技术,可用于在给定阈值下消除或衰减野生蚊子种群,以减少滋扰或流行病学风险。在这项工作中,我们提出了一个使用差分系统的模型,该模型随着时间的推移考虑了降雨和温度的变化,并研究了它们对无菌男性的影响,从而释放了策略。我们的模型尽可能简单,可以避免复杂性,同时能够捕获位于R {é}联合岛的SIT处理的域中的伊迪斯白poptus蚊子种群的时间变化。主要目的是确定一年中最适合启动SIT控制的时间,以最大程度地减少大规模释放的持续时间和要释放的无菌雄性数量,以减少蚊子的滋扰或降低流行病学风险。由于灭菌效率不是100%,因此我们还研究了释放的无菌男性人群中不同水平的残留生育能力的影响。我们的研究表明,降雨在蚊子的动力学和SIT控制中起着重要作用,即从7月到12月开始进行大规模SIT治疗的最佳时期,残留的生育能力必须尽可能小,并且释放的规模不一定总是很有趣。我们还强调了将SIT与机械控制相结合的重要性,即去除繁殖地点,特别是当最初的蚊子种群较大时。

The sterile insect technique (SIT) is a biological control technique that can be used either to eliminate or decay a wild mosquito population under a given threshold to reduce the nuisance or the epidemiological risk. In this work, we propose a model using a differential system that takes into account the variations of rainfall and temperature over time and study their impacts on sterile males releases strategies. Our model is as simple as possible to avoid complexity while being able to capture the temporal variations of an Aedes albopictus mosquito population in a domain treated by SIT, located in R{é}union island. The main objective is to determine what period of the year is the most suitable to start a SIT control to minimize the duration of massive releases and the amount of sterile males to release, either to reduce the mosquito nuisance, or to reduce the epidemiological risk. Since sterilization is not 100% efficient, we also study the impact of different levels of residual fertility within the released sterile male population. Our study shows that rainfall plays a major role in the dynamics of the mosquito and the SIT control, that the best period to start a massive SIT treatment lasts from July to December, that residual fertility has to be as small as possible, and that increasing the size of the releases is not always necessarily interesting. We also highlight the importance of combining SIT with mechanical control, i.e. the removal of breeding sites, in particular when the initial mosquito population is large.

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