论文标题
接触网络的可逆变化如何影响流行病的传播
How the reversible change of contact network affects the epidemic spreading
论文作者
论文摘要
在199年大流行的早期爆发期间，中国个体的流动性模式表现出可逆的变化 - 在许多地区，行动能力首先降低，随后恢复。基于此观察结果，我们在这里研究了特定类型的时变网络的经典SIR模型，在该网络中，链接经历了冻结过程。我们首先关注一个孤立的网络，发现恢复机制可能导致流行病的复兴。链接冻结对流行动力学的影响是微妙的。特别是，我们表明链接的冻结速率具有最佳值，这与流行病的最低患病率相对应。这一结果挑战了我们传统的想法，即更严格的预防措施（对应于较大的冻结速率）可能始终对流行病扩散产生更好的抑制作用。我们进一步调查了一个开放系统，该系统可以从“环境”（外部感染节点）中获取网络中的一小部分节点。在这种情况下，即使被感染的节点的数量下降到零，第二波也会出现，这无法通过隔离的网络模型来解释。
The mobility patterns of individuals in China during the early outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic exhibit reversible changes -- in many regions, the mobility first decreased significantly and later restored. Based on this observation, here we study the classical SIR model on a particular type of time-varying network where the links undergo a freeze-recovery process. We first focus on an isolated network and find that the recovery mechanism could lead to the resurgence of an epidemic. The influence of link freezing on epidemic dynamics is subtle. In particular, we show that there is an optimal value of the freezing rate for links which corresponds to the lowest prevalence of the epidemic. This result challenges our conventional idea that stricter prevention measures (corresponding to a larger freezing rate) could always have a better inhibitory effect on epidemic spreading. We further investigate an open system where a small fraction of nodes in the network may acquire the disease from the "environment" (the outside infected nodes). In this case, the second wave would appear even if the number of infected nodes has declined to zero, which can not be explained by the isolated network model.
